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US natural gas output, demand to fall due to coronavirus lockdowns, agency says
US natural gas production and demand will drop in 2020 and 2021 from record highs last year as coronavirus lockdowns cut economic activity and energy prices, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projected dry gas production will drop to 88.65 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 84.02 bcfd in 2021 from the all-time high of 92.21 bcfd in 2019.
It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.42 bcfd in 2020 and 78.71 bcfd in 2021, from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019.
That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand has fallen for two consecutive years since 2006.
EIA’s gas supply projection for 2020 in August was lower than its July forecast of 89.24 bcfd, while its latest demand outlook for 2020 was higher than its July forecast of 82.35 bcfd.
The agency forecast US liquefied natural gas exports would reach 5.54 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021, up from a record 4.98 bcfd in 2019. That is higher than its July forecasts of 5.35 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021.
US coal production is expected to fall 29 per cent to 502 million short tons in 2020, which would be its lowest level since 1963, before rising to 564 million short tons in 2021 when power plants are expected to burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices, EIA said.
It projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will fall to 4.543 billion tonnes in 2020, the lowest since 1983, from 5.130 billion tonnes in 2019, the lowest since 1992, before rising to 4.798 billion tonnes in 2021 as coal use increases.
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