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Spot prices up on forecasts for hot weather, less wind
European spot power prices rose on Monday on forecasts for lower German wind power supplies and a brief heatwave that could boost electricity demand for air conditioning.
Wind power supplies in Germany will halve to 2.4 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday from Monday, and not exceed 3.6 GW in the period up to July 29, according to Thomson Reuters data.
“There’s been a mismatch of wind forecasts and reality while solar supply has also been overestimated,” one trader said.
“This outweighs more thermal availability and some demand drops due to the holidays starting in some regions,” he added.
German baseload power for Tuesday delivery was 3.75 euros above the price paid for Monday at 34 euros ($37.56) a megawatt hour (MWh).
The equivalent French contract was 5 euros up at 41 euros.
Demand is expected to rise strongly on Tuesday – by 1.3 GW in Germany and by 2.6 GW in France – as temperatures are forecast to exceed 22 degrees Celsius per day on a 24-hour basis in Germany. In France they are forecast to rise to 25.8 degrees.
But they will not increase beyond Thursday and will fall next week, if current predictions materialise.
Forward power prices were up, tracking firmer carbon and gas curve levels, while coal and oil lost some earlier strength to turn negative.
UK gas reacted strongly to lower than expected supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), higher exports to continental Europe, and the extension of an outage at the Rough gas storage site to next year.
German baseload power for next year, Cal ’17, was 1 euro up at 28.2 euros/MWh.
The French year-ahead power contract was 1.4 euros up at 33.6.
Crude oil was lower after choppy trade in Asia following gains last week. Traders shrugged off the impact of Friday’s attempted coup in Turkey and upbeat economic data from the United States lent some support.
European coal prices for 2017 were 0.3 percent down, but held above $60 a tonne.
Front-year EU carbon allowances were 0.2 percent up at 4.94 euros a tonne.
In eastern European power, the Czech year-ahead position was not traded but was bid 1 euro higher at 29.15 euros, and the next day position gained 1.2 euros to 33.8 euros. Ricky Jean Francois Womens Jersey
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