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Proposed India diesel ban offers limited GHG cuts
A proposed ban by 2027 on four-wheeler diesel vehicles in Indian cities with a population of over 1mn and in highly polluted towns could make limited contribution to cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The ban, proposed in a report by the Energy Transition Advisory Committee (Etac) of the Indian oil ministry, will not contribute to cutting emissions significantly given the continuing fall in the share of diesel vehicles in India’s total vehicle sales.
The report, whose recommendations the oil ministry are yet to accept it said on 10 May, also recommends several other measures to aid India’s 2070 net zero goal, including boosting the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in the total number of vehicles, as well as a progressive switch to gasoline and biodiesel blending in transport fuels.
But the fall in emissions is unlikely to come mainly from switching four-wheeler vehicles to cleaner fuels. Four-wheeler full diesel vehicle sales have been on in falling trend since at least 2014. But sales of four-wheeler full gasoline vehicles almost doubled over the same period. The share of full diesel vehicles in total vehicle sales fell to under 11pc in the April 2022-March 2023 fiscal year from just over 14pc in 2014-15, data from government portal Vahan show.
The drop in the share of full diesel vehicles in total four-wheeler sales accelerated after the government deregulated fuel prices in late 2014 and ended subsidies, likely because of a narrowing spread between retail gasoline and diesel prices. Retail gasoline prices were 96.72 rupees/litre in Delhi on 9 May compared with Rs89.62/l for diesel, a difference of Rs7.10/l. Gasoline prices were Rs72.26/l in Delhi on 1 April 2014 compared with Rs55.49/l for diesel, a spread of Rs16.77/l.
India also launched a national vehicle scrapping policy in August 2021, aimed at phasing out unfit and polluting vehicles. The policy deregisters privately-owned cars older than 20 years and commercial vehicles older than 15 years.
Indian carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose to 2.7bn t in 2019, the third-highest in the world, from 900mn t in 2000. But around 1.2bn t of emissions came from the power sector in 2019 compared with only 300mn t from the road. CO2 emissions are lower in diesel engines compared with gasoline-powered vehicles. But diesel engines emit more nitrous oxide and particulate matter, controlling which increases the cost of production and discouraging auto manufacturers.
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