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No, crude prices are not headed for $150 a barrel
Now that oil has hit $95 a barrel, analysts have started to forecast higher prices. Estimates go all the way up to $150 a barrel, as in the case of JP Morgan’s energy analysts. This is followed by sympathetic projections of the likely impact on India’s macro fundamentals. It’s time we put a lid on this line of punditry. Oil prices are not going to go crazy.
The first reason is that US President Joe Biden trails his likely opponent Donald Trump by 10 percentage points in the run up to the 2024 election, according to a recent Washington Post-ABC poll. While the poll has been widely panned, there is every reason for President Biden to work a little harder to make himself more agreeable to the most important Joe in an election year – the average Joe. That means containing the price of gasoline at the filling station.
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