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India’s Russian Oil Imports Are Set to Hit a Six-Month High
Indian refiners are on track to buy the most Russian crude in six months this December, despite U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top two exporters that went into effect in late November.
The average daily arrivals of Russian oil in India are estimated at 1.85 million barrels, according to data from Kpler, cited by Reuters’ Clyde Russell. That would be up from 1.83 million barrels daily in November and the highest since June, when Indian buyers imported Russian crude at a rate of 2.1 million barrels daily.
The November figure itself was a downward revision on an earlier estimate that had pegged the month’s average daily import rate at 1.855 million barrels. Even at 1.83 million barrels, however, the November daily average was higher than the figure for October, which was 1.48 million barrels daily, again per Kpler.
Rosneft and Lukoil, the targets of the latest U.S. sanctions, handled around half of Russia’s total oil exports, or some 2 million barrels daily, until November 21, when the sanctions came into effect. Since then, importers and exporters alike have been looking for—and finding—ways around the sanctions. As many expected, while exports by Rosneft and Lukoil are down, exports of crude by non-sanctioned companies have spiked since November 21.
According to data recently quoted by Goldman Sachs, since the sanctions came into effect, oil flows from Rosneft and Lukoil abroad had dropped by around 1 million barrels daily. However, in the same period, flows from non-sanctioned Russian oil companies to clients overseas have gained half a million barrels daily.
Some analysts predicted that Indian purchases of Russian oil would tank in December as sanctions came into effect, but this does not seem to have been the case. This confirms the expectation that oil flows would continue, under a new name, as it were, coming from companies other than Lukoil and Rosneft.
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