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Diesel days numbered? India eyes massive LNG truck expansion by 2040
India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) truck population is projected to grow from around 700 trucks in FY24 to nearly 2,00,000 by 2040 under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) Good-to-Go (GtG) scenario and to 5,00,000 in a high-growth Good-to-Best (GtB) scenario. In contrast, China has already crossed 8,00,000 LNG trucks with a network of 6,000 refuelling stations.
According to the demand assessment study conducted by PNGRB, India is aiming to transition one-third of its long-haul trucking fleet to LNG over the next 15 years to reduce diesel consumption and lower carbon emissions in the freight sector. The current penetration of LNG in the trucking segment remains limited, with only 20 stations and 700 trucks operating as of FY24. The report notes that diesel-powered road freight accounts for nearly 65–70 per cent of India’s logistics share and contributes 35–40 per cent of road transport emissions.
Based on stakeholder consultations and infrastructure outlook, LNG truck numbers may rise to 30,000 by 2030 in the GtG scenario and 50,000 in the GtB case. By 2040, this may rise further to 2,00,000 and 5,00,000, respectively,” the report said. The study estimates daily LNG consumption per truck at 131.4 scmd, assuming 320 km travel per day with average mileage of 3.2 km/kg.
In contrast, China’s LNG trucking ecosystem is significantly larger, with over 8,00,000 trucks already deployed and around 6,000 LNG stations in operation. The PNGRB report highlights that China achieved this scale by creating a supportive ecosystem involving pricing support, dedicated manufacturing lines, and extensive fuelling infrastructure. Europe has about 80,000 LNG trucks and 525 stations, while the US fleet comprises 35,000 LNG trucks with 250 stations.
India’s LNG push has started with the government’s mandate to open 50 LNG stations in the initial phase. Industry feedback suggests that expansion to 1,000 stations will be required to support wider adoption. The report also notes stakeholder suggestions for incentivising domestic LNG manufacturing, tax exemptions, waiver of road tolls for LNG vehicles, and allocation of domestic gas to stabilise fuel prices.
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