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Colombia Turns to LNG as Domestic Gas Runs Out
Colombia’s natural gas market is entering a period of sustained pressure as domestic production declines, new supply remains years away, and dependence on imported LNG deepens. The depletion of mature onshore fields, the freeze on new exploration licences, and delays in expanding import and transport infrastructure are converging at a time of rising demand, leaving regasification capacity as the main short-term buffer against widening supply deficits.
The decline in domestic output began in 2023 and has continued as legacy fields – such as Cusiana, Cupiagua, Chuchupa, and Ballena – progress deeper into late-life decline. Average production fell from 28.7 MMcm/d in 2021 to 22.8 MMcm/d in 2025, representing a 22% reduction over four years. At the same time, upstream investment has weakened. Since January 2023, President Gustavo Petro’s administration has stopped awarding new exploration contracts for oil, gas and coal, in line with its climate agenda and emissions reduction targets. Existing licences remain in force, but the absence of new acreage has sharply reduced the pipeline of future discoveries, reinforcing the structural downturn in supply.
In this context, the country’s main long-term supply hope rests on the Sirius offshore project in Colombia’s Caribbean waters. Located about 77 kilometres off the Colombian coast in water depths of roughly 830 metres, Sirius is the largest gas discovery in country’s history. Operated by Petrobras (44.5%) and Ecopetrol (55.5%), the field was discovered in 2024 and its reserves were confirmed later that year to hold about 170 Bcm. Full development is expected to support plateau output of around 13 MMcm/d, with first production targeted around 2031. In October 2025, the partners began early commercialisation, offering up to 7 MMcm/d under medium-term contracts. Sirius has the potential to transform Colombia’s supply balance, not only because of its scale but also because of its relatively competitive economics. Despite being an offshore development, its largely dry-gas profile supports lower unit costs than many associated-gas projects. Breakeven prices are estimated near $6 per MMBtu, well below recent regional LNG prices of $10–14 per MMBtu. That cost advantage, however, is sensitive to market conditions. A sustained decline in global gas prices would narrow the gap with imports, while the project still faces substantial upfront investment requirements, particularly for subsea pipelines and onshore processing and transmission links.
Before Sirius enters service, supply gaps are set to widen. The national gas market administrator BMC projects a deficit of about 5.3 MMcm/day in 2026, up sharply from 2.5 MMcm/d in 2025. With domestic fields continuing to decline and exploration subdued, the country has little choice but to deepen its reliance on imported LNG.
Currently, imports are centred on the Cartagena regasification terminal (known as SPEC), which has operated with a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) since 2016. Originally designed as a backup for drought periods, the terminal has functioned as baseload supply since 2023, running near full capacity of about 11.3 MMcm/d. Expansion plans to lift capacity to around 13.4 MMcm/d by late 2025 and to 15 MMcm/d by 2027 have slipped. The owners Promigas and Vopak approved the expansion only in November 2025, and intermediate upgrades remain under construction.
With Cartagena stretched, several additional LNG projects are intended to relieve pressure, though most will not be fully available before the late 2020s. Ecopetrol’s Coveñas terminal is scheduled to start in 2027 with initial capacity of about 3.1 MMcm/d, rising toward 11.3 MMcm/d by 2030. Its key feature is the planned conversion of sections of the Oleoducto de Colombia (ODC) and Caño Limón–Coveñas oil pipelines into gas lines. Repurposing these routes would allow regasified LNG to reach inland demand centres without building entirely new pipelines, potentially reshaping Colombia’s internal gas flows.
The Ballena LNG terminal in La Guajira, developed by TGI and Hocol, is expected to start in early 2027 with capacity of roughly 7–8.5 MMcm/d, linked to the Ballena–Barrancabermeja pipeline. The corridor is positioned to serve both current imports and future Sirius production. On the Pacific coast, the Buenaventura project aims to start in mid-2026 with its capacity around 1.7 MMcm/d, using a floating storage unit (FSU) and truck-and-barge logistics. Although it provides short-term flexibility, it suffers from high logistics costs, limited scalability and vulnerability to transport disruptions.
Together, these projects imply a prolonged transition in which new import capacity is added gradually, while demand continues to rise. Cartagena is therefore likely to remain the main balancing point through much of the decade. Any mismatch between infrastructure timelines and consumption growth is likely to translate into tighter markets and higher prices. With around 40% of demand coming from gas-fired power generation, about 30% from industry and roughly 20–25% from residential and small commercial users, adjustment pressures are expected to fall first on the power sector.
Pipeline imports from Venezuela remain a potential low-cost alternative, centred on the Antonio Ricaurte line with capacity of about 14 MMcm/d, but would require significant repairs and regulatory easing. Ecopetrol urged the government in October 2025 to relax restrictions on Venezuelan gas purchases. Parallel efforts involving Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela’s Dragon field, backed by Shell and authorised under a US licence, highlight the region’s latent export potential, though timelines remain uncertain.
In the meantime, LNG imports are rising structurally. Colombia’s LNG imports are sourced mainly from the United States and Trinidad and Tobago. Volumes peaked in 2024 during an El Niño-driven drought that reduced hydropower output and lifted gas-fired generation. Improved rainfall in 2025 eased emergency demand, but the structural supply gap remained. By January 2026, imports were already running some 60% above year-ago levels, pointing to renewed growth. With domestic production continuing to decline, volumes are expected to rise toward the maximum capacity of the Cartagena FSRU in 2026.
However, declining upstream output in Trinidad is gradually reducing available export volumes. As a result, Colombia is becoming increasingly reliant on US Gulf Coast cargoes. In the meantime, the political climate between Bogotá and Washington has become strained lately, with the Trump administration’s hostile stance toward Venezuela and disputes over counternarcotics cooperation, including sanctions and public criticism of President Gustavo Petro. This creates a more uncertain backdrop for increasing reliance on the US LNG supplies.
Until new offshore supply and transmission capacity come online, Colombia’s gas market will remain structurally short and increasingly exposed to global LNG prices. While historical domestic gas costs averaged $4–5 per MMBtu, regional LNG prices remain in the $9–12 per MMBtu range, ensuring that import-linked pricing will continue to dominate the market until new domestic supply emerges. Delays in upstream investment and infrastructure expansion leave little buffer against demand growth and weather-driven shocks, keeping Cartagena’s FSRU capacity as the main system constraint. As a result, domestic prices are set to track international benchmarks for years, deepening import dependence on US LNG at a time of renewed political uncertainty in US–Latin America relations.
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