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Caught in the Trump-Putin game of chicken: India’s Russian oil imports’ future and options
The additional tariff announced by US President Donald Trump on import of Indian goods over New Delhi’s hefty Russian oil imports has thrown up questions on the potential consequences for India as it walks a diplomatic tightrope amid trade uncertainties and the unfolding game of chicken between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The stakes are high for India and it is sure to negotiate with the US on Russian oil imports, hoping to get Trump to reverse the tariff penalty. At the very least, India would try and work out a calibrated reduction of oil imports from Russia over an extended period, instead of a complete halt in purchases. After all, New Delhi also values its special relationship with Moscow. In that context, Trump and Putin’s planned Alaska summit, should it ease the strain between the US and Russia, could provide some relief to India on the Russian oil issue.
weeks, significant imports of Russian crude by Indian refiners surfaced as a major point of friction for the Donald Trump administration in its relationship with New Delhi. On August 6, Trump announced that an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods—on top of the 25 per cent tariff already announced—would take effect after 21 days. New Delhi described this targeting of India over its acquisition of Russian oil as “unjustified and unreasonable”. India stated that these imports commenced because its traditional energy supplies were diverted to Europe after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, India asserted that the US had “actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability”
The renewed pressure from the US and other Western powers—pressuring Russia’s top trade partners to cut down on imports from the country—are aimed at forcing the Kremlin’s hand into ending the Ukraine war. For Trump, who wants the over three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war to end within days, this is an opportune time to pressure India over its Russian imports, given that New Delhi and Washington are locked in sensitive trade pact negotiations. Experts also see it as a ploy by Trump to extract a more favourable trade deal from India.
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