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Oil sans Russia
India’s confidence in navigating a potential cut-off in Russian oil supplies due to looming secondary sanctions reflects not only geopolitical pragmatism but also the hard lessons of energy security learned over decades. At a time when Western powers are tightening the screws on Moscow, India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has projected a calm assurance that the country can weather disruptions – an assertion that deserves closer inspection.
To begin with, India’s heavy reliance on Russian crude, which currently accounts for about 35 per cent of its oil imports, is a relatively recent development catalyzed by post-Ukraine war discounts and flexible payment terms. It is not built on deep strategic alignment but rather short-term economic advantage. That distinction matters when evaluating India’s ability and willingness to pivot away from Moscow if the cost of association becomes too high. Mr. Puri’s statement that India now sources oil from around 40 countries – up from 27 ~ indicates a proactive diversification strategy already in motion. Emerging suppliers like Guyana, and consistent players such as Brazil and Canada, expand India’s import cushion.
The plan to intensify domestic exploration and production further enhances its capacity to offset disruptions, though in the short term this remains a modest component of total supply. India’s private refiners have also proven nimble in optimising their sourcing strategies to global price signals, making the import ecosystem more adaptive than a centrally regulated system. India’s diplomatic posture – emphasising “prevailing global circumstances” and warning against “double standards” ~ is a subtle reminder to the West that energy needs in the Global South cannot be viewed through the same normative lens as transatlantic sanctions regimes. India’s refusal to be boxed into one camp or the other is not an act of defiance but a strategic assertion of autonomy.
India’s energy calculus also considers long-term consumption trends. With demand projected to rise steadily for the next two decades, building flexible, multi-origin supply chains is not just a crisis response ~ it’s a structural necessity. This balancing act is not without precedent. During the Cold War, India skillfully maneuvered between superpowers to secure economic and defence interests. Today, with energy being the lifeline of its $3.7 trillion economy and aspirations for high growth, the stakes are even higher. It is also significant that the fallback plan, as articulated by Indian Oil Corporation’s chairman, is a return to pre-Ukraine supply patterns ~ when Russian oil constituted less than 2 per cent of imports.
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