-
India to lead global oil demand: S&P Global
Even as long-term global oil demand is projected to decline due to alternative energy adoption and efficiency gains, India is expected to lead the global oil demand growth, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The growth in demand will, however, increase the country’s import dependency, reinforcing the need for a diversified crude sourcing strategy amid inadequate domestic supplies.
US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on all trading partners have introduced significant economic uncertainty, potentially reducing global GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, the agency said. This, S&P forecasts, could cut oil demand growth from 1.2 million barrels per day to 0.8 million b/d in 2025, with the possibility of zero or negative growth in the second half of the year.
“Demand from China and the US, is expected to be most affected, particularly for refined products like diesel and jet fuel. Meanwhile, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised output by 411,000 b/d for May–July 2025, triggering a 20% drop in Brent prices,” said Premasish Das, Executive Director for Oil Markets Research and Analysis, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “The increase, driven by frustration among compliant producers, may be offset if overproducers like Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan reduce their output,” he added.
S&P now forecasts an average Brent price of $68/barrel for 2025, up from $63/barrel earlier, but expects a decline below $60/bbl by year-end due to strong supply growth.
Geopolitics is now central to trade forecasts and corporate strategy, noted Rahul Kapoor, Vice President and Global Head of Shipping Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Share This
