PEC+ to consider 137,000 bpd oil output increase for April, sources say
OPEC+ will likely consider raising its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April to end a three-month pause in production increases, three sources with knowledge of OPEC+ thinking said, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and tensions between the U.S. and OPEC member Iran boost prices. The resumption would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and fellow members, such as the UAE, to regain market share at a time other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, contend with Western sanctions and Kazakh output is recovering from a series of setbacks. Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – meet on March.
Oil Prices Set for Weekly Decline as Risk Premium Eases
Crude oil prices were on course for their first weekly decline in four weeks as the United States and Iran signaled they were willing to continue negotiating instead of escalating to a hot war. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $71 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $65.56 per barrel, after three weeks of gains. Brent crude has gained more than $3 per barrel over the past four weeks, and WTI is also up by some $3 per barrel. “Traders are in wait-and-see mode heading into the weekend with Iran tensions mounting on one hand, and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday with a likely production hike on the other hand,” Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said, as quoted by Reuters. The latest round of talks between the United States and Iran took place on Thursday, concluding without a deal but with “significant progress” and plans to meet again soon—likely as soon as next week, according to the mediator in the Geneva negotiations, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. The Saudi Gazette reported, however, that Iran’s government had said before the talks had ended that it planned to continue its uranium enrichment program and disagreed with the suggestion of moving that program abroad. Before the outcome of the Thursday talks was made public, ING commodity strategists said in a note that “A constructive resolution would likely prompt the market to gradually unwind as much as a $10/bbl risk premium, which we believe is currently priced in. If talks break down, the upside risk remains, but the market may hold off on a full reaction until the scale of potential US action against Iran becomes clearer.” U.S. President Donald Trump has given Iran until the end of next week to agree to a nuclear deal, threatening military action if the deadline is not met by the Iranian side.
Trump Administration Reopens Door to Offshore Oil Leasing in California
Federal regulators have officially reopened a door California politicians have spent years trying to weld shut. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management on Thursday announced it will prepare a programmatic environmental impact statement for potential oil and gas lease sales in the Northern, Central, and Southern California program areas, launching the first formal step required under NEPA. Translation: California’s offshore leasing conversation is no longer theoretical. The notice covers roughly 11,876 lease blocks spanning about 65 million acres of the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf. The proposal stems from the draft 11th National OCS Leasing Program, which contemplates one sale in Northern California, two in Central California, and three in Southern California. The BOEM says the purpose is to provide access to blocks that may contain economically recoverable oil and gas. Acting Director Matt Giacona framed the move in pocketbook terms, citing California’s energy affordability crunch and national energy security goals. For the industry, the immediate impact is procedural. This is scoping, not spudding. Even under an aggressive timeline, any lease sale would be years away from first oil. California’s offshore output today is a rounding error compared to the Gulf of Mexico. But strategically, it matters. California currently imports the majority of its crude oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Brazil. If even a part of this offshore acreage proves viable, it could marginally offset imports and stabilize in-state refinery supply. It is unlikely, however, to move global benchmarks. It would not flip the U.S. export balance. But it could reduce dependence on long-haul foreign barrels feeding West Coast refiners. The BOEM is also weighing alternatives, including a no-sale option and a narrower sale limited to areas near existing Southern California infrastructure. Opposition from Sacramento is fierce and litigation is a near certainty. Still, the signal to markets is that federal energy policy is tilting toward supply. Whether California’s coastline actually sees new rigs is another story entirely.
Iran Restarts Gas Exports to Iraq as Energy Pressures Mount
Iran has restarted the exports of natural gas to its neighbor Iraq despite U.S. opposition to the exchange, which last year led to the cancellation of these supplies. The daily rate of exports is 7 million cu m, Reuters reported, citing a spokesman for Iraq’s electricity ministry. The spokesman also said ministry officials plan to travel to Tehran to discuss future gas supplies as well. In December 2025, the Iraqi electricity ministry said it had suspended all purchases of Iranian natural gas, adding that this had immediately knocked between 4,000 and 4,500 megawatts off the national power grid. The suspension was part of a gradual process for reducing dependence on energy imports from Iran, with the blessing of the United States. Iranian supplies had been covering roughly 30 to 40 percent of Iraq’s power generation needs. Those volumes had already been diminishing due to payment disputes, U.S. sanctions pressure, and Iran’s own domestic shortages. This week’s news suggests that it has been challenging to replace Iranian gas imports with local energy use or alternative imports. The details about negotiations regarding summer demand for electricity reinforce this perception: summer is peak electricity demand season for much of the Northern hemisphere, notably the Middle East. If the Iraqis are willing to negotiate more gas supply from Iran just two months after announcing the suspension of these imports, then energy security considerations have resurfaced as a big priority. Interestingly, Iraq has plenty of its own gas, coming from the oil wells as associated gas. Unfortunately, most of this gas is flared at the oil fields rather than captured, processed, and utilized. The most obvious reason is the amount of money that needs to get invested in the necessary infrastructure. TotalEnergies is one of those investing in Iraq’s gas with the goal of eventually supplying this gas to power generators in the country.
Saudi Arabia Boosting Oil Output In Anticipation of U.S. Attacks On Iran
Saudi Arabia has started to increase its oil output as part of a contingency plan in the event the United States attacks Iran and oil flows are disrupted, Reuters reported on Wednesday, as OPEC’s biggest oil producer positions itself as a “reliable supplier” looking to take up its traditional role as a key swing producer ready to stabilize the markets if a conflict occurs. U.S. President Donald Trump recently revealed that he is considering a “limited military strike” on Iran in a bid to pressure its leaders into a new nuclear agreement. Saudi crude shipments jumped to 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 24 days of February 2026, the highest level since April 2023. The Kingdom is prepared to implement a short-term output hike specifically to offset potential supply losses from Iran or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint. Saudi Arabia can utilize its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass potential Gulf blockades, though its spare capacity is currently limited to ~2.4 million bpd. Iran, which produces around 3.2 million barrels per day (approximately 3% of global oil), has warned that any U.S. or allied military strikes against its territory will trigger immediate and decisive retaliation. The ongoing tensions have raised significant concerns that Iran could attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical bottleneck which handles 20-30% of global seaborne oil. The threat of disruption has increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, with analysts warning that a conflict could lead to sharp price spikes similar to those that occurred four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s output hike comes at a time when OPEC+ is considering a resumption of its unwinding program. OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April 2026 when it meets on March 1, ending a three-month pause in hikes. The group paused its program for the first quarter of 2026 after steady increases of 137,000 bpd in Oct/Nov/Dec 2025 due to fears of oversupply.
Saudi Arabia Boosting Oil Output In Anticipation of U.S. Attacks On Iran
Saudi Arabia has started to increase its oil output as part of a contingency plan in the event the United States attacks Iran and oil flows are disrupted, Reuters reported on Wednesday, as OPEC’s biggest oil producer positions itself as a “reliable supplier” looking to take up its traditional role as a key swing producer ready to stabilize the markets if a conflict occurs. U.S. President Donald Trump recently revealed that he is considering a “limited military strike” on Iran in a bid to pressure its leaders into a new nuclear agreement. Saudi crude shipments jumped to 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 24 days of February 2026, the highest level since April 2023. The Kingdom is prepared to implement a short-term output hike specifically to offset potential supply losses from Iran or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint. Saudi Arabia can utilize its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass potential Gulf blockades, though its spare capacity is currently limited to ~2.4 million bpd. Iran, which produces around 3.2 million barrels per day (approximately 3% of global oil), has warned that any U.S. or allied military strikes against its territory will trigger immediate and decisive retaliation. The ongoing tensions have raised significant concerns that Iran could attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical bottleneck which handles 20-30% of global seaborne oil. The threat of disruption has increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, with analysts warning that a conflict could lead to sharp price spikes similar to those that occurred four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s output hike comes at a time when OPEC+ is considering a resumption of its unwinding program. OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April 2026 when it meets on March 1, ending a three-month pause in hikes. The group paused its program for the first quarter of 2026 after steady increases of 137,000 bpd in Oct/Nov/Dec 2025 due to fears of oversupply.
India Turns to Venezuela; Reliance Books VLCCs as Russian Oil Imports Ease
Indian Refiner Reliance Industries has booked very large oil tankers, known as VLCCs, to transport crude oil from Venezuela, Reuters reported. This marks the first time such massive vessels are being used under a new supply arrangement after recent US actions involving capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. These ships can carry 2 million barrel oil than the smaller tankers that were previously being used. The move is expected to lower transportation costs because bigger ships can carry more oil in a single trip. It will also help ease the shortage of smaller tankers that were handling most of Venezuela’s exports in recent months. Deliveries using these large vessels are expected to begin in March and could make the supply process faster and more efficient. According to the report, at least three VLCCs — Nissos Kea, Nissos Kythnos and Arzanah — have been booked by global traders Vitol and Trafigura for March loading.
Govt mandates sale of E20 fuel across India
Centre has mandated the sale of ethanol-blended petrol with up to 20 per cent ethanol and a minimum Research Octane Number (RON) of 95 across all states and Union Territories from April 1, 2026. In a February 17 notification, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas directed oil marketing companies to sell ethanol-blended motor spirit (E20) conforming to Bureau of Indian Standards specifications and having a minimum RON of 95. The government may grant exceptions in special situations for specific regions and limited durations. The move is aimed at reducing crude oil imports, lowering emissions and supporting farmers by boosting demand for sugarcane, maize and other agricultural produce used in ethanol production. Ethanol is a renewable, domestically produced fuel derived from sugarcane, maize or grain, and burns cleaner than pure petrol. India achieved 10 per cent ethanol blending in petrol in June 2022, five months ahead of schedule. Encouraged by the progress, the government advanced the target of 20 per cent blending to 2025-26 from 2030. Most fuel stations now retail E20. The insistence on a minimum RON of 95 is intended to prevent engine knocking and potential damage. RON measures a fuel’s resistance to pre-ignition or knocking, uneven fuel combustion that can cause a pinging sound, loss of power and long-term engine harm. The higher the RON, the greater the resistance to knocking.
India reduced LNG imports by 8 per cent in 2025
India imported 25.589 million tons of LNG in 2025 (33 billion cubic meters after regasification), which is 8% less than in 2024 (27.869 million tons), according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. In 2025, during the summer peak of demand – in May, June, and July – the air temperature in the country was noticeably lower than the extreme values of 2024, which could limit the appetites of LNG importers. If we ignore the high base of 2024, LNG supplies to India show steady growth in the long term: 22 million tons of LNG were received in 2023 and 20 million tons in 2022. Currently, seven receiving terminals with a total capacity of 47.7 million tons per year are operating in the republic. By the end of 2025, India ranks fifth in the world in terms of imports, following China, Japan, South Korea and France. A year earlier, it bypassed France (26 million tons in 2024 and 32 million tons in 2025). In 2025, more than 2/5 of the volume was supplied from Qatar – 10.924 million tons (-4%). This is followed by the United States (2.792 million tons, -48%), the United Arab Emirates (2.495 million tons, -21%), Angola (1.756 million tons, -16%), Nigeria (1.703 million tons, +19%), Oman (1.658 million tons, +26%). There are no direct LNG supplies from Russia to India. At the same time, five shipments from Cameroon arrived in the country. Gas is supplied from Cameroon to India under a swap scheme within the Gazprom Marketing & Trading portfolio (after the company was confiscated from Gazprom by Germany, the company changed its name to SEFE), while gas from Yamal LNG is sent to other destinations.
Indian Refiners’ January Crude Processing Fell In January
Indian refiners’ crude processing (throughput) fell by 0.2% month-on-month in January 2026, reaching 5.63 million barrels per day (bpd) or 23.81 million metric tons, marking a slight decrease after December throughput clocked in at 5.64 million bpd. India’s fuel consumption in January came in at 21.05 million metric tons, down from 21.71 million in December but was nearly 3% up compared to January 2025. India relies on imports for over 80% of its crude supply, primarily sourcing from Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States. India’s energy strategy focuses on balancing discounted Russian oil with supplies from the Middle East and the US, while also expanding its list of import partners to ensure energy security. India is actively diversifying its crude sourcing away from Russia, significantly increasing imports from Nigeria and Angola amid intensified U.S. political pressure and tariff threats. The Trump administration has also authorized India to resume direct purchases of Venezuelan oil, primarily as part of a strategy to reduce India’s reliance on Russian crude. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a general license to Reliance Industries Ltd, India’s largest private refiner, allowing it to purchase, export and refine Venezuelan-origin oil directly, in the aftermath of the U.S. military capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, after which Washington took control of Venezuela’s oil sales. For Indian refiners, Venezuelan heavy crude is attractive because it is sold at a discount and is compatible with complex refining facilities such as Reliance’s Jamnagar complex. India is projected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth over the long-term. The country’s oil demand is expected to rise from roughly 5.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to over 6.6 mb/d by 2030 and potentially 13.7 mb/d by 2050, with India capturing nearly half of all additional global barrels produced.