Russia’s diligent efforts to find markets for its crude oil and refined fuels since the Ukraine war, and ongoing tensions in the Red Sea are yielding conflicting outcomes for India’s crude purchases and diesel exports.
Indian refiners are benefiting from lower crude prices but diesel exports to Europe are facing major challenges on the volume and margin front.
Russian oil started flooding the Indian market soon after the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022 as European nations began closing their markets to Moscow. Russia’s share in India’s crude imports spiralled from less than 1% before the war to 42% in the first five months of this fiscal year, pushing down the share of other key suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
At the same time, Russia’s aggressive inroads into the South American diesel market has negatively impacted Indian refiners. “Europe, which was a key market for Indian diesel, saw increased competition from US Gulf coast supplies. This is an effect of Russian diesel eating into the share of US exports to South America, which forced US exports to divert towards Europe instead and, in turn, led to lower Indian exports,” said Rohit Rathod, an analyst at Vortexa.
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