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Norway raises gas export price estimates for 2019 and 2020
Norway has increased its gas export price estimate for this year and next on an expected decline in European gas production, the country’s revised state budget showed on Tuesday.
Its export price is still set to fall compared with 2018 but is now expected to hold at a higher level than last October’s original 2019 budget estimates.
The country’s average gas price estimate for 2019 was raised by 0.15 Norwegian crowns to 2.20 crowns ($0.2519) per cubic metre. The estimate for 2020 was raised to 1.85 crowns per cubic metre, also up by 0.15 crowns from the previous forecast.
Despite expectations for lower gas prices year on year because of higher global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, Norway says the decline will be smaller than previously forecast, limited by cuts in European gas production.
“Increased supply of LNG globally over the next few years, as a result of increased exports from the United States, is expected to contribute to lower export gas prices in the European market,” the revised budget said.
“The price decline is likely to be limited by the fact that gas production in Europe is likely to fall … Estimates are adjusted upwards.”
Further ahead, Norway expects its gas export prices to pick up from 2021-2025 as LNG supply growth falls globally because of pf lower investment in LNG plants.
From 2026 Norway forecasts a long-term price of 1.93 crowns per cubic metre.
There were no significant changes in Norway’s expected gas production for 2019 and 2020, the revised budget said.
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