-
India poised to end China’s dominance era in oil demand: Moody’s
After more than a decade of dominance by China, the global oil and gas spotlight is shifting, and it’s India that’s now centre stage.
According to a latest Moody’s report, India is poised to overtake China as the biggest driver of global oil and gas demand growth over the next decade. The shift marks a dramatic rebalancing, powered by India’s accelerating industrialisation, massive infrastructure push, and a growing middle class with increasing mobility needs.
But, on the other side of the story is a slowing Chinese economy and a rapid rise in electric vehicle adoption, both of which are cooling the country’s once-insatiable thirst for fuel.
“Demand will grow faster in India than in China over the next decade, as China’s economic growth slows and penetration of new energy vehicles accelerates. Crude consumption in China will peak in the next 3-5 years, while in India we expect annual growth of 3%-5% in the same period,” the Moody’s report read.
India’s economic engine shows no signs of slowing. Real GDP growth is projected at 6.3% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, putting the country firmly at the top of the G-20 growth charts, highlighted Moody’s report. This robust expansion, combined with rising demand for transportation fuel and stepped-up investments by state-run oil marketing companies in refining capacity, is expected to keep oil demand climbing sharply.
It’s not just oil. Gas, too, is becoming a bigger piece of India’s energy puzzle. The government plans to increase natural gas’s share in the energy mix from around 6% today to 15% by 2030. Demand is being driven by fast-growing sectors like fertilisers, petrochemicals, and city gas networks. Annual growth is projected between 4% and 7% through the end of the decade. Yet challenges such as affordability and patchy infrastructure remain barriers to faster adoption.
Share This
