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Good news for India? Crude oil prices to stay in $75-$80/bbl range over next six months
After a sharp rise in January 2025, global crude oil prices are expected to average between $75-$80 per barrel over the next six months. This trend is primarily driven by the new Trump administration’s plan to ramp up crude production, OPEC’s decision to maintain output levels, and no major disruption in Russian crude supply. Meanwhile, demand growth is projected to remain subdued amid a slowdown in major global economies, according to CareEdge Ratings.
Indian Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) saw a decline in their gross refining margins (GRMs) during the first nine months of FY25, averaging $4.80/bbl—down from $11.75/bbl in FY24 and $17/bbl in FY23. This drop resulted from reduced discounts on Russian crude and lower product cracks, particularly diesel, which had surged after the Russia-Ukraine war. Going forward, GRMs for Indian PSU OMCs are expected to remain in the range of $4-$6/bbl.
Blended retail margins on petrol and diesel surged to approximately Rs 9/litre in Q3FY25, supported by lower crude prices and moderating GRMs. With crude oil prices expected to remain stable and GRMs staying within a narrow range, blended retail margins are projected to stay healthy at Rs 7-9/litre, creating potential for petrol and diesel price adjustments that have remained largely stagnant.
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